The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Title Charge
Just 60 days ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.